Could Derek Ernst pick up another shocking win at the Valspar?

Derek Ernst has one top-25 finish in 61 prior PGA Tour starts. It was a win at the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship, when he was ranked 1,207th in the Official World Golf Ranking.

He is on the verge of a second top-25 finish on Sunday at the Valspar Championship, and it could well be his second win.

Ernst is alone in third at Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course, two behind leader Ryan Moore heading into the final round of the PGA Tour’s Tampa-area stop. The 24-year-old UNLV product is at 7 under par and playing the weekend for just the fifth time in 12 starts in the 2014-15 season.

Needless to say, this is unexpected. However, Ernst said Saturday that his belief in his game hasn’t been shaken despite missing seven of his last eight cuts.

“All belief in yourself,” he said. “Golf is so mental and this week I just flipped the switch and started believing in myself and had some positive affirmations I’ve been telling myself. It shows obviously right there.”

Ernst, who said he prefers to play from behind, has nothing to lose amid a stacked leaderboard of top-10 players and multi-time PGA Tour winners. That may make him very dangerous, like two years ago in Charlotte.

“I think there I was also a couple back going into the final round and I’m just kind of playing one shot a time,” he said. “Feels good to get the competitive juices going again. I’m having a great time.”

Ryan Ballengee is a Yahoo Sports contributor. Find him on Facebook and Twitter.

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